Three scenarios. One question: what happens when the price moves against you before the business needs the cash?
Model a 70% drawdown, a forced sale into the loss, and the cash alternative nobody puts in the board paper.
Drawdown ScenariosWorking capital & covenant impact
Scenario
BTC Value
Unrealised P&L
WC Runway
Covenant
Asset coverage ratio — current vs. covenant threshold
0×Threshold: 3×
Price Sensitivity MatrixPortfolio value at range of BTC prices
BTC Price
Portfolio Value
vs. Cost Basis
vs. Current
WC Runway
When the Business Needs CashUnrealised loss → realised loss mechanics
An unrealised loss is a paper entry. A forced sale is a permanent capital destruction event. The gap between them — the moment the business needs liquidity and BTC is the only asset available — is the risk almost no board paper addresses.
Forced Sale at 70% Drawdown
Tax & Net Recovery Analysis
Capital destruction waterfall
Partial Sale — Working Capital TriageHow much BTC must you sell to bridge the gap?
Trigger SpectrumAt what drawdown does each threshold break?
The Instrument Nobody DiscussesCash on deposit vs. BTC treasury — honest comparison
At 4.75% on deposits, a £750,000 cash position earns circa £35,000 in the first year — risk-free, immediately liquid, with no volatility drag on the balance sheet and no covenant complications. The Bitcoin alternative generates a higher potential return. It also generates a higher certain risk. This section models both, without ideology.
BTC Treasury Scenario
Cash on Deposit
Break-even analysis — what BTC price justifies the allocation?
Cash Interest DetailCompounded earnings across horizon
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