Thirty years
of models
that had to
be right.
Not a consultant with a chatbot. An operator with three decades of institutional model construction behind him and a purpose-built AI stack in front of him. Banking. Treasury. Payroll. Satellite telemetry. Online gambling reconciliation. Forensic accounting. The domain changes. The standard does not.
The models were not
academic exercises.
Every model in this practice’s history carried institutional liability. The mortgage model at Bradford & Bingley was not a prototype — it was the infrastructure running the book. The FX reporting stack at JPMorgan was not a proof of concept — it was the system four cities depended on for month-end close. When a model is wrong in those environments, the board asks questions that cannot be answered with “we’re investigating.” That is the standard this practice builds to. It has not changed.
Since 1996. Excel 5. VBA from the first version that made it viable. Not adopted as a skill. Forged as the primary tool for institutional model construction across three decades and a dozen domains. The AI stack is the newest layer. The analytical standard underneath it is the oldest thing on this page.
Five capabilities.
One standard.
Every engagement begins with a diagnostic. The service line is determined by what the diagnostic finds — not by what the client assumed they needed when they first made contact. The client describes the problem. The diagnostic determines the entry point.
Every CFO being handed a DCF by an M&A advisor, every fund manager receiving a valuation model from a research house, every board approving a strategic recommendation built on a financial model — they share the same problem. They cannot evaluate the model themselves. They need someone who can, and who will tell them the truth about it.
Thirty years of building models means knowing exactly what corners get cut, what assumptions get buried, and what the model was constructed to prove rather than test. That pattern recognition cannot be taught. It is the accumulated record of being inside models when they failed.
- Full assumption audit — every input, every driver, every sensitivity
- Circular logic and structural error identification
- Break condition analysis — what combination of inputs causes the model to fail
- Probability-weighted scenario construction to replace point estimates
- Independence assessment — was this model built to answer a question or prove a conclusion
- Board-ready forensic report — findings stated plainly, not buried in caveats
The Show Me The Model framework — thirteen conditions, eight structural contradictions, four scenarios, probability-weighted expected value — is the public demonstration of what institutional-grade model construction looks like. That is the private standard applied to every bespoke build.
Sectors covered: financial services, cryptocurrency and digital assets, compensation and incentive design, treasury and cash management, operational and commercial modelling, regulatory capital and stress testing.
- Conditional framework construction — not point estimates, scenario distributions
- Sensitivity and Monte Carlo analysis where the decision warrants it
- Falsification conditions built in — not “still early” escape hatches
- Full documentation: assumptions, sources, methodology, limitations
- Excel and VBA delivery — institutional-grade, auditable, maintainable
- Interactive HTML overlay available for board or investor presentation
The person who built the system has left. The documentation does not exist. The system produces the right numbers — probably — but nobody can prove it, explain it, or modify it without risking something nobody can predict. The FCA is asking questions. The audit function is asking questions. The board is asking questions.
Using Gemini’s two-million-token context window, an entire institutional codebase is ingested in a single analytical session. The AI council maps the logic. Thirty years of experience with these systems identifies what the AI cannot — the ghost rules that evolved over fifteen years of edge cases and were never written down.
- Full VBA macro audit — every module, every dependency, every edge case
- MS Access schema mapping — tables, relationships, queries, forms
- Ghost logic identification — the undocumented rules that are actually running the system
- FCA EUC compliance documentation — the standard the regulator requires
- Reconciliation framework — proving the system produces what it claims to produce
- Migration pathway — stabilise in place, refactor, or transition to Python/SQL/cloud
The eighteen forensic tools on paulfaulkner.com are the public demonstration of what this service produces. Each one takes a specific analytical question — “does this price target require something the world has never done?”, “what does your stop-loss actually advertise to the market?”, “what verdict does your balance sheet actually produce?” — and turns it into an interactive instrument a user can operate themselves.
The same capability is available as a bespoke commissioned service. A client’s specific analytical question, modelled and delivered as an interactive HTML tool — embedded in an investor relations page, a board pack system, a due diligence data room, or a client-facing research platform.
- Bespoke analytical logic built to the client’s specific question
- Full Rogue Protocol design system or client brand implementation
- Live data integration where applicable — market prices, on-chain data, regulatory feeds
- Embeddable via iframe or delivered as standalone hosted tool
- Board-ready: operates without technical knowledge, produces defensible output
- Scenario outputs exportable — the tool produces the evidence, not just the conclusion
The Operational Protocol produces primary-record documentation by design. Every engagement generates a timestamped, citable, audio-grounded record of what was said, what was agreed, and what was built. In a dispute, that record is not reconstructed after the fact. It exists from day one.
Expert analysis engagements apply the same forensic standard to financial modelling disputes, structured product mis-selling claims, EUC system failures, and valuation methodology challenges. The Bradford & Bingley provenance — designing the subprime products, documenting the risk, being ignored — is the analytical foundation for structured credit and mortgage litigation support.
- Financial model dispute analysis — what the model actually produced versus what was represented
- Structured product and mortgage mis-selling — structured credit expertise from primary construction experience
- EUC system failure analysis — what the system did, what it should have done, where it diverged
- Valuation methodology challenge — independent assessment of whether the methodology was appropriate
- Primary record infrastructure — Operational Protocol documentation from engagement start
- Court-ready report format — findings stated clearly, methodology documented, limitations acknowledged
The deliverable
is not a PDF.
The standard consulting deliverable is a document. It is read once. It is filed. When someone needs to stress-test an assumption six months later, they commission another document. The interactive intelligence tool is a different object entirely. It is an instrument — one that a non-technical user can operate, that produces defensible output from their own inputs, and that does not require the analyst to be in the room.
The eighteen forensic tools currently on paulfaulkner.com are the public demonstration of this service: BTC Cherry Picker (date-range return forensics), MVRV Structural Ceiling Calculator (on-chain cycle positioning), BTC Balance Sheet Suitability Assessment (seven-condition director diagnostic), Hyperbitcoinisation Conditions Stack (six-condition falsification framework), Correlation Collapse (safe-haven claim audit), Cash Erosion Audited (ten-error forensic audit of the 11% claim), and twelve others. Each one takes a specific analytical question and turns it into an instrument a non-specialist can operate. That is the capability available as a bespoke commissioned service.
What the stack adds.
What it cannot replace.
The AI council — Gemini, Claude, DeepSeek, Mistral, with a proprietary Ollama layer — augments every engagement. It does not replace the operator. Twenty-five years of institutional pattern recognition determines which three sentences in a two-hour transcript are the ones that will kill the project in six months. The AI cannot do that. What it does is make the work tractable at a price point that was not viable before.
▸ The differentiator is not the AI stack. Every consultant has access to the same models. The differentiator is thirty years of institutional pattern recognition directing the stack — knowing which question to ask, which output to challenge, which three sentences in the transcript are the ones that matter. The AI multiplies the operator. It does not replace the judgement. Engagements are accepted on a selective basis. Not every problem is the right fit. Not every client is the right client. That selectivity is itself part of the standard.
Every engagement
begins with the diagnostic.
The diagnostic determines the service line. Not the other way around. The client describes the problem. The diagnostic determines the correct entry point, scope, and price. The diagnostic fee applies as credit toward the subsequent engagement.
Capacity note: Advanced Modelling & AI Services engagements are accepted on a selective basis. The practice is a single-operator model by design — no juniors, no intermediaries, no work produced by a team and signed off by a senior. That is the constraint. It is also the value. Enquiry does not guarantee engagement. The diagnostic determines fit in both directions.
A structured diagnostic session followed by a written forensic brief — 10 to 20 pages — identifying what the problem actually is, what the material risks are, and whether a full engagement is warranted. Two weeks of follow-up access. Full fee credited against the subsequent engagement.
Book Diagnostic →The full modelling or forensic review engagement. Forensic model review, institutional model construction, regulatory document analysis, or interactive tool commission. Scope agreed after the diagnostic. Fixed price. No junior intermediaries. Full written deliverable.
Initiate Enquiry →Monthly retainer providing priority access and allocated analytical capacity. Suitable for family offices, active portfolio managers, and institutions with ongoing forensic modelling requirements. Retainer structure detailed on the Services page.
View Retainer Structure →The model should have
been built to survive
the question it answers.
All enquiries are treated as strictly confidential. NDA available before any substantive discussion. Engagements are accepted on a selective basis — the diagnostic determines the entry point.
NDA Available on Request · Senior Operator Only · No Junior Intermediaries · Engagements Accepted Selectively · nOS v1.0 Deployed
