This tool is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, a personal recommendation, or a financial promotion under FSMA 2000. The Rogue Protocol is not authorised or regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. All outputs are illustrative simulations based on user-supplied inputs and publicly available data. Past MVRV patterns are not indicative of future results. Cryptocurrency markets carry substantial risk of loss. If you require regulated financial advice, consult an FCA-authorised adviser.
Most cycle-timing models are arbitrary or untestable. MVRV is neither. By measuring the ratio between current market capitalisation and the aggregate cost basis of every coin on the network, you can observe in real time exactly how much aggregate profit the market is sitting on.
Enter the current Realised Cap from Glassnode or CoinMetrics. The BTC price can be fetched live or entered manually. The calculator derives MVRV, network profit, and the price at which the 3.7 structural ceiling is reached.
Why MVRV is the most defensible cycle-timing framework in on-chain analysis — and what its limitations are.
Market Value to Realised Value (MVRV) divides the current market cap by the Realised Cap — the aggregate cost basis of every coin currently in circulation. When MVRV is above 1, the average holder is in profit. When it is below 1, the average holder is at a loss.
The 3.7 threshold is empirically derived from three prior cycle peaks. In 2013, 2017, and 2021, Bitcoin's MVRV ratio reached approximately 3.7 at or near the top of each major cycle before a structural reversion began. This is not a prediction. It is a documented pattern across three independent cycles.
MVRV is a structural threshold indicator — not a timing tool. It identifies where the market is relative to historical distribution zones. It does not predict when the cycle will peak, whether it will peak at 3.7 again, or whether the cycle has changed structurally since 2021.
Three specific limitations apply to this cycle: First, spot ETF flows have introduced a large class of holders whose cost basis is not captured in on-chain Realised Cap. Second, corporate treasury accumulation creates structural HODLing that suppresses realised profit realisation. Third, the Realised Cap must be sourced manually from Glassnode or CoinMetrics — it is not available via public API and will lag by days.
The Realised Cap requires full on-chain UTXO data — every unspent transaction output valued at the price it last moved. This cannot be derived from price and supply alone. It requires direct blockchain analysis.
Glassnode published $1.113T as of 3 February 2026. That figure will have moved since — rising as coins that were acquired cheaply are spent at higher prices, falling as coins acquired near recent highs are spent during corrections. The Feb 2026 preset is a reference point, not the current figure.
2013 cycle peak: MVRV reached approximately 5.0 before the November 2013 top at ~$1,100. The threshold was exceeded significantly due to the relatively small and less liquid market.
2017 cycle peak: MVRV reached approximately 4.0–4.5 near the December 2017 top at ~$19,000. The larger and more liquid market produced a lower MVRV peak than 2013 — consistent with diminishing returns.
2021 cycle peak: MVRV reached approximately 3.7 near the November 2021 top at ~$69,000. The pattern of compressing MVRV peaks cycle-over-cycle is consistent with a maturing asset class where each new cycle requires proportionally more capital to produce the same multiple.