This tool is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, a personal recommendation, or a financial promotion under FSMA 2000. The Rogue Protocol is not authorised or regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. All outputs are forward-looking projections based on user-supplied inputs — not forecasts or guarantees. Cryptocurrency investments carry substantial risk of loss. If you require regulated financial advice, consult an FCA-authorised adviser.
Every DCA calculator in circulation treats mechanical monthly buying as the default optimal strategy. None of them benchmark against the risk-free rate. None of them ask what the money costs. This lab runs two strategies simultaneously and answers the question nobody is asking: is Bitcoin generating true Alpha over Treasury bills across your chosen horizon?
Two strategies. One benchmark. No fabricated price paths. The model uses the inputs you provide to calculate what each strategy produces — and whether either beats simply holding Treasuries.
Why opportunity cost is the variable every DCA calculator in circulation ignores.
Every DCA calculator available tells you how much Bitcoin you would have accumulated over a given period. None of them tell you what the alternative was. Deploying $1,000 per month into Bitcoin is a choice with a cost — the risk-free return you are forgoing.
At 4.5% annualised, $1,000 per month over 24 months in UK Gilts produces approximately $25,400 after compounding. Bitcoin must beat that number to generate positive Alpha. The question is not whether Bitcoin goes up. It is whether it goes up enough to justify the opportunity cost.
The Static DCA strategy treats all months as equivalent. A month when Bitcoin is 30% below your average cost is treated identically to a month when it is 20% above it. This is not rational behaviour — it is a rule that removes judgement entirely.
The Volatility Capture strategy adds one decision: when the price is significantly below the running cost basis (the dislocation trigger), deploy more capital. This is not market timing. It is systematic response to a clearly defined signal. The multiplier and trigger are configurable precisely because the right values depend on your liquidity position, risk tolerance, and conviction.
Cost basis is the weighted average price at which your entire Bitcoin position was purchased. It is the break-even point. Below it, you are at an unrealised loss. Above it, you are in profit.
Volatility Capture systematically lowers cost basis by allocating more capital at lower prices. The mathematics are straightforward: buying more at lower prices pulls the weighted average down. The model quantifies this precisely — the difference in cost basis between the two strategies is the measurable output of the approach.
This model does not simulate price. It does not predict whether Bitcoin will reach the target prices shown in the chart. It does not know when dislocations will occur or how frequently the Vol-Capture trigger will fire in practice.
What it tells you is structural, not predictive. It tells you what each strategy would produce if the trigger fires at a given frequency and intensity. It tells you what the risk-free alternative would produce. It tells you what cost basis each approach implies. These are arithmetically certain outputs given the inputs. The inputs themselves — particularly the price targets — are yours to choose and yours to justify.